08-E Texas Clean Air Cities Coalition (2)

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What impact would the new plants have on the ozone situation in the Austin area? Modeling to date indicates that the daily ozone levels in the Austin area could increase by three parts per billion or more, and that the proposed TXU reductions could bring little or no benefit to Austin. Adding three parts per billion would send the area above the level the EP A has identified as dangerous to human health and place it in non-attainment status. It would also effectively cancel out all of the recent efforts Austin has recently made to improve its air quality. What impact would the new plants have on the ozone situation in other parts of the state? Preliminary modeling indicates that the impacts could be even greater on areas in central Texas near Waco, and could increase ozone levels by six parts per billion or more in those areas. It is unclear what impact these plants will have on the Houston non- attainment area, because complete modeling hasn't been undertaken. Further studies are needed to better understand these impacts and to understand impacts on other areas of the state. Doesn't Texas need more power generation c.apacity? Yes. But we see no evidence that Texas will be facing a power shortage if it does not immediately build all of the sixteen traditional coal plants as presently proposed. ERCOT, the independent operator of the state's power grid, calculates a number called the "reserve margin." This is the difference between the available generating capacity and the estimated peak system load. ERCOT recommends that the state maintain a minimum reserve margin of 12.5%.7 ERCOT predicts that with no addition of generating capacity, the reserve margin is likely to fall below 10% by 2009. But ERCOT also calculates that if all of the proposed coal- fired units were built, the reserve margin would be 200/0 by 2009, almost 25% by 2010, and about 23% by 20 II. 8 So if all of the proposed units were built, the reserve margin by 2011 would be almost double the recommended minimum. The many energy conservation measures being undertaken by all electricity users may further reduce the demand, over and above the current ERCOT projections. 7 Mark Armentrout (Chairman ofERCOT Board of Directors), "How Much Power Does Texas Need?" DALLAS MORNING NEWS, September 17, 2006. 8 See "ERCOT Emergency Load Response, Sept. 15,2006, PUC Demand Response Workshop" available at http://www.puc.state.tx.us. 6 ........---........-. .-.-.-..-....-,.. ................-r--.-...